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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 04 February 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 6,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften which dropped by almost 11 pct and BDI closing at 647 points.
The drop in BDI was mainly due to dr ...
Thursday, 02 February 12
NO RELIEF YET FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although at the start of 2012 nobody can claim that the global seaborne trade has suddenly come to a halt, quite the contrary, it seems that the dry ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT - GOING DEEP TO SOAR HIGH
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port now rightfully claims as the deepest draft port in India, as it has started accepting vessels with maximum permiss ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
IN JAMBI, MOST MINING COMPANIES LACK 'CLEAR-AND-CLEAN' PERMITS - JP
More than three-quarters of the 386 mining companies in Jambi lack “clear-and-clean” certifications from the government, according to an ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
2% OF IBPS TOTAL CONCESSION AREA CONTAINS TOTAL COAL RESOURCE OF 56.1 MILLION TON
COALspot.com - PT. Britmindo, a mine consulting firm, has finalized PT. Insani Bara Perkasa (IBP) first JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) res ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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