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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 04 February 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 6,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften which dropped by almost 11 pct and BDI closing at 647 points.
The drop in BDI was mainly due to dr ...
Thursday, 02 February 12
NO RELIEF YET FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although at the start of 2012 nobody can claim that the global seaborne trade has suddenly come to a halt, quite the contrary, it seems that the dry ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT - GOING DEEP TO SOAR HIGH
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port now rightfully claims as the deepest draft port in India, as it has started accepting vessels with maximum permiss ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
IN JAMBI, MOST MINING COMPANIES LACK 'CLEAR-AND-CLEAN' PERMITS - JP
More than three-quarters of the 386 mining companies in Jambi lack “clear-and-clean” certifications from the government, according to an ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
2% OF IBPS TOTAL CONCESSION AREA CONTAINS TOTAL COAL RESOURCE OF 56.1 MILLION TON
COALspot.com - PT. Britmindo, a mine consulting firm, has finalized PT. Insani Bara Perkasa (IBP) first JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) res ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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