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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 November 11
ABM INVESTAMA SETS IPO AT RP 3,750
Insider Stories reported that, Integrated energy company PT ABM Investama Tbk has determined the IPO price at Rp3,750 (approximately US$ 0.415) per ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
A SURPRISINGLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
Positive gains for most of the segments this week, the exception being the Handysizes. Overall the BDI ended the week at 1,895 points (+3.3% week-on ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
APPETITE FOR DRY BULK VESSELS SLOWS DOWN AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was down at the beginning of the week, as demand for Capesize vessels was particularly low. The industry’s benchmark, the ...
Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight ...
Sunday, 20 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to move up with all sectors gaining except for handy size.
The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and closed at 1895 poin ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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