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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 November 11
ABM INVESTAMA SETS IPO AT RP 3,750
Insider Stories reported that, Integrated energy company PT ABM Investama Tbk has determined the IPO price at Rp3,750 (approximately US$ 0.415) per ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
A SURPRISINGLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
Positive gains for most of the segments this week, the exception being the Handysizes. Overall the BDI ended the week at 1,895 points (+3.3% week-on ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
APPETITE FOR DRY BULK VESSELS SLOWS DOWN AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was down at the beginning of the week, as demand for Capesize vessels was particularly low. The industry’s benchmark, the ...
Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight ...
Sunday, 20 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to move up with all sectors gaining except for handy size.
The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and closed at 1895 poin ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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