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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 November 11
CITING CONTRACTS, MINING FIRMS ARE NOT PAYING ROYALTIES UNDER LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, when the 2009 Law on Minerals and Coal was endorsed, hopes that Indonesia could maximize its revenue from the minera ...
Monday, 28 November 11
NEW ENVIRONMENTAL MARINE REGULATIONS TO IMPACT SHIPPING IN 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
August of next year will see some major changes for marine navigation. It’s when the North American ECA will come into force, introducing a 1% ...
Sunday, 27 November 11
INDIA'S KPCL TO IMPORT 50 MMT OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
COALspot.com - Karnataka Power Corporation Limited (KPCL) will buy 5 million metric tonnes of coal annually for 10 years starting from 2015.
In a ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
INDIAN PORTS ARE BECOME COAL STOCKPILES..!!
COALspot.com - The Indian coal stocks and power tariff situation is the hot topic among the world coal producers as well as Indian coal importers.&n ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market were down probably with the sentiments of global financial markets and all segments were down.
The BDI was up down by 4 ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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