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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 November 11
CITING CONTRACTS, MINING FIRMS ARE NOT PAYING ROYALTIES UNDER LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, when the 2009 Law on Minerals and Coal was endorsed, hopes that Indonesia could maximize its revenue from the minera ...
Monday, 28 November 11
NEW ENVIRONMENTAL MARINE REGULATIONS TO IMPACT SHIPPING IN 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
August of next year will see some major changes for marine navigation. It’s when the North American ECA will come into force, introducing a 1% ...
Sunday, 27 November 11
INDIA'S KPCL TO IMPORT 50 MMT OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
COALspot.com - Karnataka Power Corporation Limited (KPCL) will buy 5 million metric tonnes of coal annually for 10 years starting from 2015.
In a ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
INDIAN PORTS ARE BECOME COAL STOCKPILES..!!
COALspot.com - The Indian coal stocks and power tariff situation is the hot topic among the world coal producers as well as Indian coal importers.&n ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market were down probably with the sentiments of global financial markets and all segments were down.
The BDI was up down by 4 ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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