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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 25 November 11
DISPUTE BETWEEN GIANT MINING FIRMS ENDS IN LAHAT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, prolonged dispute taking place in the South Sumatra regency of Lahat and involving two giant mining companies PT Buk ...
Friday, 25 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING STEAM, FAST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It’s been a week of falls for the dry bulk market this one, leaving ship owners with a sour taste in their mouths, as evidence of a recovery i ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
INDONESIA/INDIA SPMX TC AROUND $ 7/8K AND AROUND $ 12/13.00 PMTS ON VOYAGE BASIS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Last week ended on a positive note in the Atlantic however the activity levels are somewhat reduced. Owners are asking in excess of USD ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was lower once again on Wednesday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session down by 1. ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
NTPC TO BUY 2 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL FOR ITS FOUR PLANTS
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government of India, the largest thermal power generati ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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