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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 25 November 11
DISPUTE BETWEEN GIANT MINING FIRMS ENDS IN LAHAT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, prolonged dispute taking place in the South Sumatra regency of Lahat and involving two giant mining companies PT Buk ...
Friday, 25 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING STEAM, FAST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It’s been a week of falls for the dry bulk market this one, leaving ship owners with a sour taste in their mouths, as evidence of a recovery i ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
INDONESIA/INDIA SPMX TC AROUND $ 7/8K AND AROUND $ 12/13.00 PMTS ON VOYAGE BASIS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Last week ended on a positive note in the Atlantic however the activity levels are somewhat reduced. Owners are asking in excess of USD ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was lower once again on Wednesday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session down by 1. ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
NTPC TO BUY 2 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL FOR ITS FOUR PLANTS
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government of India, the largest thermal power generati ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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