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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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