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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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