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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 November 11
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 500,000 Metric Tons of minimum 5700 kcal/kg coal of NAR bases ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ISSUE MORATORIUM ON COAL MINING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Energy and mineral resources ministry is plans to issue a moratorium on the issuance of coal mining licenses, after the anti-graft co ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT BECOMES DEEPEST DRAFT PORT IN INDIA
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port in its quest to be the best port in India has increased its draft to 17.5 meters, according to E-Mail statement fr ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
CHINA'S INDONESIA COAL IMPORTS RISE IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31,162,688 MT of coal in October 2011.
China was a largest importer of Indonesi ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
TAX OFFICE VOWS TO CRACK DOWN ON COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry’s Directorate General of Taxation says that it will strengthen its supervision of coal mi ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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