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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 November 11
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 500,000 Metric Tons of minimum 5700 kcal/kg coal of NAR bases ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ISSUE MORATORIUM ON COAL MINING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Energy and mineral resources ministry is plans to issue a moratorium on the issuance of coal mining licenses, after the anti-graft co ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT BECOMES DEEPEST DRAFT PORT IN INDIA
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port in its quest to be the best port in India has increased its draft to 17.5 meters, according to E-Mail statement fr ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
CHINA'S INDONESIA COAL IMPORTS RISE IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31,162,688 MT of coal in October 2011.
China was a largest importer of Indonesi ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
TAX OFFICE VOWS TO CRACK DOWN ON COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry’s Directorate General of Taxation says that it will strengthen its supervision of coal mi ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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