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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET RISES TO NEW HEIGHTS ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on rising this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbing to 1,846 points on Wednes ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INTO CHINA, THE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW - BRS
Capesize
The Capesize market in Atlantic stayed pretty firm last week with transatlantic rounds being fixed in the high twenties. Sentiment was les ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE OF INDONESIA COLLAPSED AT KUKAR, EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - A suspension bridge in Indonesia’s east Kalimantan province over the Mahakam river collapsed on Saturday, killing at least elev ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
BUKIT ASAM SCOUTS RP3 TRILLION PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
The state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to post a Rp3 trillion net income this year, reaching its target which is 50% above ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS WEEK ON HIGHER NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Contrary to what had been the case during the past few weeks, this one began on a high note for the dry bulk market, with the Capesize sector pullin ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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