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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 December 11
HAREDA KRIDA GETS CONTRACT FROM BAYAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), through its subsidiary dubbed PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal (GPB), has signed ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
CAPESIZES LIFT DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the ...
Wednesday, 07 December 11
ABM INVESTAMA EYES RP6.3 TRIO REVENUE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, an energy integrated company PT ABM Investama Tbk is eyeing a 1.5 folds increase in revenue this year from Rp4. ...
Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates o ...
Monday, 05 December 11
THE DECEMBER HBA FELL 11% FROM ITS PEAK AT US$127.05 PER TON IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the December 2011 coal reference price at US$ 112.67 per ton US$ 3.98 ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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