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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 December 11
HAREDA KRIDA GETS CONTRACT FROM BAYAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), through its subsidiary dubbed PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal (GPB), has signed ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
CAPESIZES LIFT DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the ...
Wednesday, 07 December 11
ABM INVESTAMA EYES RP6.3 TRIO REVENUE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, an energy integrated company PT ABM Investama Tbk is eyeing a 1.5 folds increase in revenue this year from Rp4. ...
Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates o ...
Monday, 05 December 11
THE DECEMBER HBA FELL 11% FROM ITS PEAK AT US$127.05 PER TON IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the December 2011 coal reference price at US$ 112.67 per ton US$ 3.98 ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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