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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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