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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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