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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 19 December 11
PLN WILL NO LONGER BUY COAL FROM TRADERS
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara will no longer allow traders to become their suppliers, said, its ...
Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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