We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 19 December 11
PLN WILL NO LONGER BUY COAL FROM TRADERS
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara will no longer allow traders to become their suppliers, said, its ...
Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
|
|
|
Showing 4926 to 4930 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
|
| |
| |
|
