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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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