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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
MINERS MAKE CASE FOR RESUMING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, problems with the renegotiation of mining contracts in the country are far from over, as agreements on several cruci ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
COAL SHIPMENT OF TIANJIN PORT REACHED 6.72 MLN TONNES IN NOVEMBER - STEEL HOME / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tianjin port shipped 6.72 million tonnes of coal in November, decreasing 600,000 tonnes versus 7.32 million tonnes in October, while up 21.09% or 1. ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
NEW CLAUSE PUBLISHED FOR SLOW STEAMING - BIMCO
Many owners and operators faced with high bunker prices are considering implementing slow steaming regimes to save fuel and to assist with capacity ...
Monday, 26 December 11
NEW EXPORT TAX PLAN GREETED WITH PRAISE AND CRITICISM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the Indonesia's leading english news paper reported that, both praise and criticism showered the government’s plan t ...
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Showing 4911 to 4915 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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