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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
Sunday, 01 January 12
IS INDIA FOLLOWING INDONESIA TO STANDARDIZE COAL PRICES TO GET MAXIMUM BENEFITS?
COALspot.com - Coal India limited, an Indian state owned and world largest coal producer has introduced gross calorific value (GCV) based pricing me ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
GLOBALCOAL NEWC INDEX SURGED 2.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian market, ended substantially higher, surged 2.32 percent to US$115.47 per ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG TO BUY BUMI STAKE, SWAP CEO - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported yesterday, shareholders of Indonesian coking coal miner Borneo Lumbun ...
Friday, 30 December 11
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ISSUE PERMITS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, business associations from both the palm oil and mining sectors have suggested that the central government should re ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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