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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
Saturday, 07 January 12
COAL MARKETS SEE FALLING SPOT PRICES
COALspot.com – World’s thermal coal spot prices have slipped this week..
globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian mark ...
Friday, 06 January 12
COAL INDIA LINKED COAL PRICES WITH INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES
COALspot.com - Consumers of indigenous coal in India to pay International prices in the future. Coal India has recently moved from UHV pricing mecha ...
Friday, 06 January 12
CLARIDEN GLOBAL BRINGS YOU INDONESIA MINING 2012
Capitalizing Business & Investment Opportunities in an Uncertain Market.Press Release - Clariden Global brings you Indonesia Mining 2012, the dedi ...
Friday, 06 January 12
THE PANAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A SLOW START TO 2012 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
As usual after a holiday owners and charterers both try to get a feel of the market. An Armada of Supras were talking to ballast towards USG, ...
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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