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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
Sunday, 15 January 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to bleed with BDI touching almost 1000 points , almost reaching the collapse of 2008 levels," said C ...
Saturday, 14 January 12
GOLDEN MINES TO SUPPLY 4 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner under Sinarmas Group PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DS ...
Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benc ...
Thursday, 12 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET CRASHING AT START OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept being on freefall mode yesterday, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) losing a massive 5.17% on ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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