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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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