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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of s ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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