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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 25 December 11
THERMAL COAL PRICES GAINED UP TO 4.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index gained 4.32 percent to US$106.36 per ton in RBCT, benchmark for South Asia and West Europe markets, for the week end ...
Saturday, 24 December 11
CHINAS LEVEL OF GROWTH TO DETERMINE COURSE OF DRY BULK MARKET IN 2012 SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest report, shipbroker Intermodal attempted to find a silver lining in the tough year that was 2011, as well as what one could expect from ...
Friday, 23 December 11
SPOT PACIFIC CAPESIZE VESSELS HAVE COMMANDED HIGH PREMIUMS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Rates in the Atlantic kept stable from last week, with a touch of negativity closer to the end. Less spot cargoes seen, and owners are ...
Friday, 23 December 11
CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN CONTRACT RENEGOTIATION - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has been renegotiating mining contracts, especially those 30-40 years old, with almost all mining companies, including PT Freeport In ...
Friday, 23 December 11
LANCO JOINS HANDS WITH BUKIT ASAM FOR INDONESIAN POWER PROJECT
COALspot.com - PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, Indonesia's state owned coal miner and Indian based Lanco Infratech Ltd plans to build steam power p ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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