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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 December 11
SGX LAUNCHED IHS MCCLOSKEY/XINHUA INFOLINK OTC CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT TODAY
COALspot.com - In order to meet the demand of the coal industry for an effective coal hedging tool with counterparty credit risk mitigation facility ...
Monday, 05 December 11
DRY BULK RATES LOOKING TO EXTEND GAINS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize dry bulk carrier owners have had a great week, with rates rising for six straight sessions (including the end of the week before that). As ...
Sunday, 04 December 11
SUPRAMAX TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7500 - 8000 PD
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index recovered this week. The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and Cape index saw a big jump and closed at 3409 points (up by ...
Saturday, 03 December 11
BORNEO TO SPEND US$600 MIO CAPEX - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN) plans to spend US$600 million capital expenditure ( ...
Friday, 02 December 11
DRY BULK CARRIERS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS MARKET SPEEDS UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the tanker and container markets suffering dearly, it seems that the tide has once again turned in favor of the dry bulk carriers, despite over ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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