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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 December 11
SGX LAUNCHED IHS MCCLOSKEY/XINHUA INFOLINK OTC CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT TODAY
COALspot.com - In order to meet the demand of the coal industry for an effective coal hedging tool with counterparty credit risk mitigation facility ...
Monday, 05 December 11
DRY BULK RATES LOOKING TO EXTEND GAINS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize dry bulk carrier owners have had a great week, with rates rising for six straight sessions (including the end of the week before that). As ...
Sunday, 04 December 11
SUPRAMAX TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7500 - 8000 PD
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index recovered this week. The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and Cape index saw a big jump and closed at 3409 points (up by ...
Saturday, 03 December 11
BORNEO TO SPEND US$600 MIO CAPEX - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN) plans to spend US$600 million capital expenditure ( ...
Friday, 02 December 11
DRY BULK CARRIERS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS MARKET SPEEDS UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the tanker and container markets suffering dearly, it seems that the tide has once again turned in favor of the dry bulk carriers, despite over ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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