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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 08 November 11
COAL MINER ABM INVESTAMA PLANS $290M PUBLIC OFFERING - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, ABM Investama, an Indonesian coal miner controlled by the Hamami family, plans to raise as much as Rp 2.6 trillion ...
Monday, 07 November 11
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS STEAM AHEAD
Chinese seaborne coal imports have grown greatly in recent years, up from 39.2mt in 2008 to 167.7mt in 2010, with the result that China became a net ...
Saturday, 05 November 11
DEMAND SLUMP THREATENS MORE PAIN FOR BULK VESSELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to fall with BDI dropping below 2,000 points by around 10 pct and closing at 1817 points. The cape index also co ...
Saturday, 05 November 11
BERAU STARTS TO EXPLORE BINUNGAN SITE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Berau Coal, a 90% owned subsidiary of PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), is busy to hold exploration in B ...
Friday, 04 November 11
INDIAN IRON ORE MARKET REMAINS DEAD - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market kept its strong position from last week. Even with fewer fixtures reported. Fronthauls still around 25k, wit ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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