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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 16 November 11
TAX OFFICE VOWS TO CRACK DOWN ON COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry’s Directorate General of Taxation says that it will strengthen its supervision of coal mi ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
A STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
A sharp bounce by the Cape market pushed the BDI up by 3% last week. This was despite a softening in the other indices with the Panamax, Supramax an ...
Monday, 14 November 11
BORL SEEKS 660K MT OF LOW SULPHUR COAL
COALspot.com - BORL India has issued a tender for around 660,000 MT of 4500 - 5500 kcal/kg sub-bituminous Coal.
Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd ...
Sunday, 13 November 11
BUNKER PRICES REMAINED FIRM
COALspot.com - The market seemed to recover this week with the BDI and Cape Index up.
The BDI was up by only about 2.86 pct closing at 1835 point ...
Saturday, 12 November 11
COALINDO ENERGY LAUNCHED INDEX FOR 3400 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - PT Coalindo Energy, in cooperation with Argus Media Limited, launched the coal index for low-rank coal with a calorific value of 3,40 ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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