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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 500,000 Metric Tons of minimum 5700 kcal/kg coal of NAR bases ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ISSUE MORATORIUM ON COAL MINING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Energy and mineral resources ministry is plans to issue a moratorium on the issuance of coal mining licenses, after the anti-graft co ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT BECOMES DEEPEST DRAFT PORT IN INDIA
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port in its quest to be the best port in India has increased its draft to 17.5 meters, according to E-Mail statement fr ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
CHINA'S INDONESIA COAL IMPORTS RISE IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31,162,688 MT of coal in October 2011.
China was a largest importer of Indonesi ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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