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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 12 November 11
BBJ WILL RELEASE A COAL CONTRACT
Jakarta Futures Exchange will soon release a coal futures contracts during the quarter 1 / 2012.
Director of the Jakarta Futures Exchange (BBJ) S ...
Saturday, 12 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET REGAINS SOME OF THE LOST GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market managed to edge forward yesterday, putting an end and halting the losses accumulated over the course of the past weeks, which ha ...
Friday, 11 November 11
PETROCOM ENERGY PLANS $40M TO BUILD COAL PLANT IN CILEGON - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Hong Kong-based Petrocom Energy Ltd has unveiled plans to invest up to US$40 million on a proposed coal-blending fac ...
Friday, 11 November 11
GOVT WAITS LEGAL DECISION ON BUKIT ASAM, ADARO DISPUTE - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, The government says that it will not interfere in the settlement process of the dispute between state coal miner PT ...
Thursday, 10 November 11
INDONESIAN REFERENCE COAL PRICE FELL AGAIN
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the November 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal coal at U ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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