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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 03 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET OFFICIALLY IN THE RED ON LOWER CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept falling yesterday, on lower iron ore demand, which has caused the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) to ...
Wednesday, 02 November 11
MMTC TO BUY 3.73 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 2011- 2013
COALspot.com - India’s state-owned coal and mineral trader MMTC looking for 3.73 million tons of power plant coal for the period 2011 - 2012/ ...
Wednesday, 02 November 11
PANAMAX MARKET BECAME QUIETER AFTER THE RECENT RECOVERY - BRS
There were substantial losses across the board this week: the BDI lost 6.3% to end at 2,018 and the BCI 8.2% to end 3,274. In the smaller sizes the ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG BUYS 23.8% INTEREST IN BUMI
COALspot.com - PT. Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN), an Indonesian coking coal producer announces that it has signed a sale and purchase agreement, cond ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BAKRIE FORMS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH BORNEO - REDUCING DEBT BY USD 1 BILLION
Press Release - Enhancing the standing of “Indonesia Inc.” at the London Stock Exchange PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (“BNBR” ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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