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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 01 November 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SETS IPO AT RP1,500 - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Atlas Resources Tbk has set its initial public offering (IPO) at Rp1,500 (approximately US$ 0.169) per ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
DRY BULK MARKETS CORRECTION SPILLS OVER ONTO NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is losing steam, as evidenced by the falls experienced last week, which were also apparent at the beginning of the new week. A l ...
Monday, 31 October 11
CHINAS HUNGER FOR INDONESIAN COAL AT THREE YEAR-HIGH AS WINTER NEARS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Chinese demand for power-station coal from Indonesia has soared to its highest level in three years, as central heating plants and po ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SEALS US$95 MIO LOAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, has secured US$95 mill ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN SOFT
COALspot.com - The market continued to slow down and all segment were down this week.
The biggest drop was in the Cape Index down by 8.19 pct&nbs ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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