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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 26 October 11
PWCS GLOBAL SHIPPING BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS: RECOVERY IN 2010 BUT GREAT UNCERTAINLY FOR 2011
The recovery of global trade in 2010 to the same levels as 2008 led to an improvement in the overall performance of shipping companies in 2010 compa ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
INDIAN MARKET WAS REMAINED TIGHT THE WHOLE LAST WEEK - BRS
The market once more seems to be at a crossroads. The indices last week remained fairly stable (except for the Panamax sector), ending the week as f ...
Tuesday, 25 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, ANALYSTS LOOKING FOR ADDED PRESSURE ON THE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was unchanged on Monday, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending the session at 2,153 points, exa ...
Monday, 24 October 11
NEW HEAD OF INDONESIA'S MINING MINISTRY GETS RAKED OVER THE COALS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Following Indonesia’s presidential cabinet shakeup last week, many are questioning the qualifications of Energy and Mineral Res ...
Monday, 24 October 11
CHINA QINHUANGDAO COAL PRICE RISES TO HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS - BUSINESSWEEK
Business week reported that, China’s power-station coal price rose to the highest level in three years as power stations and central heating p ...
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Showing 5011 to 5015 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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