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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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