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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 15 October 11
BUNKER PRICES AND DEMANDS PUSHED FREIGHT RATES UP - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm with all segments moving up with biggest gain in Handy size segment up by 15 pct. The BDI was u ...
Saturday, 15 October 11
BENGAL COAL IMPORT TEST - THE TELEGRAPH
The Telegraph reported that, the power position in Bengal improved today but alarm bells are ringing over imported coal stocks that are running out ...
Friday, 14 October 11
CAPE DERIVATIVES MARKET HAS NOT REFLECTED OWNERS EXPECTATIONS' - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its upward trend, with fresh cargo entering the market. Skaw Passero to US Gulf climbed US$ 1500 from la ...
Friday, 14 October 11
ADARO BUYS SERVO MEDA FOR RP200 BIO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) announced that its subsidiary PT Alam Tri Abadi (ATI), acquired 35% stake in PT Serv ...
Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edg ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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