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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
INDONESIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS JERO WACIK AS NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Jero Wacik has been appointed as minister of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia replacing Darwin Saleh and Prof. Widjajono Par ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS PRODUCED 3.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur, wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), Delta Dunia Makmur has removed 1.4 million bcm ...
Monday, 17 October 11
KOWEPO TO BUY 260,000 MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - KOWEPO has issued a spot tender for 260,000MT of minimum 5,600kcal/kg NAR Bituminous Coal.
The tender document also mentioned tha ...
Monday, 17 October 11
CAPESIZE SHIPPING COSTS CLIMB TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON ORE IMPORTS
The cost to hire capesize vessels climbed to a 10-month high as rising imports of iron ore to China boosted demand for the ships.Monthly iron-ore sh ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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