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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 24 October 11
CAPESIZE RENTAL RATES RISE FOR THIRD DAY AS MORE SHIPS HIRED - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Rates to hire capesize vessels advanced for a third day on signs of increased demand to transport iron ore, used to make steel.Daily rates for the s ...
Sunday, 23 October 11
CHINA LOOKING TO RESELL INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES - BARCLAYS
Commodity Online reported that, Anecdotal evidence has suggested that China is even looking to resell Indonesian cargoes back into the seaborne coal ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
THE SHORT-PERIOD RATES FOR PANAMAX REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - "The market seemed to slow down a bit this week, and all sectors were down by about One to five percent", said Capt. Reddy, ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
WILL THE PROPOSED 26 PERCENT PROFIT SHARING CLAUSE IN THE MINING BILL SPEED UP THE PRODUCTION OR SCARE AWAY INVESTORS? - DIPESH DIPU
A draft law has been approved by a ministerial panel headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee of India which, if passed by the Cabinet, will make ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
INDONESIA'S GOLDEN ENERGY SLASHES ITS IPO PRICE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Golden Energy Mines, a coal mining company affiliated with Sinar Mas Group, lowered its target in an initial public ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
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