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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 28 October 11
RISING COAL PRICES TO WORSEN CHINA'S WINTER POWER CRUNCH - CRI ENGLISH
CRI English reported that, the rising price of coal is fueling concerns about a power crunch set to plague China this winter, analysts said.
The ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
CAPESIZE REACHING NEW HIGHS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Pacific market has mixed sentiments with tonnages fixed at firm levels and some tonnages in feast failing on subs.For indo-india, large eco ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES DOWN AS CHINAS IRON ORE DEMAND LOSES GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A plunge in Chinese iron ore demand, as a result of high steel inventories and a bleak outlook regarding steel prices, has prompted the dry bulk mar ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
BUKIT ASAM 3Q PROFIT SURGES 66.91%
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) experienced a 66.91% increase in its net profit during a per ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
MOODYS SEES MORE GROWTH FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s coal mining industry looks set to grow despite an uncertain global economic outlook, according to ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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