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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 10 October 11
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO BE THE NEW PIRACY HOTSPOT FOR THIS YEAR SAYS MARITIME SECURITY EXPERT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Mozambique Channel, as well as the entrance to the Persian Gulf, are expected to become some of the new pirate hotspots for piracy, says Richard ...
Sunday, 09 October 11
FREIGHT MARKET ENDED WITH A POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market ended with a positive note with all the segments up except for handy size. The biggest gainer was Panamax index up by 11 p ...
Saturday, 08 October 11
INDONESIAN MINER PLANS $167M IPO TO FUEL SUMATRA COAL BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, coal miner Atlas Resources aims to raise as much as Rp 1.5 trillion ($167 million) in an initial public offering to ...
Friday, 07 October 11
MINING REGULATIONS , OBSTACLES AND GROWTH : INDIA VS INDONESIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The Govt of India has passed long pending Mines & Minerals (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2011, which seeks to replace ...
Friday, 07 October 11
$100M FOR EXPANSION INTO KALIMANTAN MINING: AKR
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, AKR Corporindo, a fuel and chemical distributor, has set aside ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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