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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will modera ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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