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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
Tuesday, 04 October 11
INDONESIA RAISES COAL BENCHMARK (HBA) FOR FIRST TIME IN 4 MONTHS
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly reference price for sales in October by 2.56 percent, the first increase since June.
The Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 04 October 11
COAL MINING GROUP WANTS EXPORT TAX, NOT EXCISE - JG
One of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, The Jakarta Globe reported that, the government shall reimpose a duty on coal exports, classifyi ...
Sunday, 02 October 11
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS PICKED UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI dropped by 1 pct and Cape index dropped by 6 pct closing at 1,899 points and 3,136 points respectively. However all other seg ...
Saturday, 01 October 11
2012 TO BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING YEAR - CEO, REMI MARITIME
Shipowners are facing another challenging year in 2012 said Mr. Leonidas Polemis CEO of Remi Maritime Corporation, urging caution towards operating ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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