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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 28 September 11
ATLAS RESOURCES TO SELL 25% STAKE IN IPO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, plans to sell 783.33 m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
A STRONG REBOUND FOR THE CAPE MARKET - BRS
A strong rebound for the Cape market, as cargoes continued to flow into the market and tonnage remained tight in the Atlantic, according to Barry Ro ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
INTRACO SEALS US$25.3 MIO ORDER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) obtained a US$25.3 million order on hand of heavy equipments ...
Sunday, 25 September 11
THE CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market moved up sharply with the cape Index up by 11 pct pushing the BDI by almost 6 pct and closing at 1,920 point ...
Saturday, 24 September 11
GOVT PLANS TO RENEGOTIATE ALL CONTRACTS INCLUDING FREEPORT - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has confirmed plans to renegotiate all mining contracts including those wi ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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