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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 21 September 11
2ND ANNUAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
2nd Annual Shale Gas Summit 31 October – 3 November 2011 JW Marriott Hotel, Hong Kong
According to a recent EI ...
Tuesday, 20 September 11
MTD INAUGURATES ITS COAL TERMINAL IN JAVA ISLAND
Press Release – MTD Group of Malaysia, one of prominent key players in the development of infrastructure in Malaysia, today inaugurated their ...
Tuesday, 20 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING ITS EDGE, RETREATING AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a surge during the past couple of weeks, which saw Capesize earnings boosted and the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reaching levels of year high and c ...
Monday, 19 September 11
CHINA IMPORTS MORE THAN 10 MMT INDO COAL IN AUGUST 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal exports dropped 1.642 million tons in August compared to July exports. Indonesia exports 29.662 million tons of coal ...
Monday, 19 September 11
INDOMOBIL ENTERING INTO COAL MINING BUSINESS
COALspot.Com- PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk, part of, one of Indonesia's largest conglomerates, to enter into mining industry ac ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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