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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 15 September 11
INDIAN GOVT PLANS TO DEVELOP 9 NEW MAJOR PORTS BY 2016 - INVEST MONEY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The government has announced to make a investment of more than Rs 22,000 crore (approximately US$ 4,623,791,331) to develop nine new major ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
BOTSWANA COAL AND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2011
Press Release - Botswana Coal and Energy Conference 2011 | 29-30 November 2011 | Gaborone. Botswana represents Africa’s exciting new coal and ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGING FURTHER UP THE SCALE, CLOSING IN ON 2,000 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was up once again yesterday, reaching 1,927 points, or 1.375 higher on the day. Thus, it has kept its rising trend established d ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
INDO STRAITS BAGS 2.4 MILLION TON COAL TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT FROM ARUTMIN
COALspot.com - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) bagged a contract to tranship about 2.40 million tons of coal over an initial period of 6 months fro ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
DUTA PERTIWI DISCOVERS COAL RESERVE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discove ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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