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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 18 September 11
THE COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA, OUT OF INDONESIA LIKELY TO PICK UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend until midweek almost touching 2,000 points, however towards second half of the week the ...
Saturday, 17 September 11
GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR US$ 1.26 BILLION
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer,confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of large, hi ...
Saturday, 17 September 11
INDIA'S GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN AUSTRALIA
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer, today confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of la ...
Friday, 16 September 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REMOVED 30.9 MILLION BCM OVERBURDEN IN AUGUST 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 30.9 million bcm (+13.2% YoY) overburden in August 2011 while coal production was at 2.9 ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
RUSSIAN COAL EXPORTS UP 10.9% IN JAN-AUG TO 71.50 MILLION TONS - PORT NEWS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Port News reported that, Coal exports from Russia in January-August 2011 grew by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, to 71.50 million ton ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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