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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 23 September 11
ICMA TO BUILD UPGRADE FACILITIES TO ANTICIPATE BAN ON LOW-GRADE COAL EXPORT BY 2014
COALspot.com - January to August of this year, Indonesia’s coal production had already reached 235 million tons. Earlier estimates had targete ...
Friday, 23 September 11
UT TO PRODUCE 7 MMT OF COAL BY 2012
PT United Tractors Tbk is targeting a 7 million tons of coal production next year, a 55.55% increase from 4.5 millions targeted this year, said Pres ...
Friday, 23 September 11
RECORD RECYCLING ACTIVITY STIRS OPTIMISM IN DRY BULK SAYS BIMCOS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected at the start of the year, dry bulk ship owners were expected to flock scrapyards around the world, in order to take advantage of attract ...
Friday, 23 September 11
PANAMAX EXPERIENCED A SOFTENING IN RATES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Still a good boost of fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels in Black Sea with GOA clearance and Baltic positions are fetching tick abov ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA FALL, CHINA BUYS MORE
COALspot.com - Indian coal imports from Indonesia fall to below 6 million tons in August, and this fall was continuing last few months. Ho ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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