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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 30 September 11
MINING BILL CLEARED, FIRMS TO SHARE 26% PROFITS WITH LOCALS - NDTV
NDTV reported that, The Union Cabinet cleared the draft mining bill aimed at regulating mining activities Friday. The bill proposes a profit-sharing ...
Friday, 30 September 11
INDIAN IRON ORE MARKET GETTING ACTIVE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its strong trend with fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels open US Gulf fixed tick above US$ 27k back to t ...
Friday, 30 September 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT WINS GLOBAL PORT & COAL PORT OF THE YEAR AWARDS
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port, a dynamic new generation world class port located in the East Coast of India has been adjudged the winner in the ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
INDONESIA'S MINERS FACE AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE - RUPERT WALKER
An evolving regulatory framework for the country's minerals industry could threaten its profitability and stifle investment.
The five-year surge ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS MID-WEEK, FURTHER DROP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ON CHINA HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, as reflected by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated by 0.36% yesterday reaching 1,920 points, with the Capesize segment suffer ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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