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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 14 September 11
GOVT SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT $116.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the September 2011 coal reference price at US$ 116.26 per ton slightly ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
CAPITAL COSTS OF INDIAN COAL MINING PROJECT - AN ANALYST VIEW
By Mr Dipesh Dipu, Director - Consulting (Mining), Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Limited
The coal mining sector that has been opened par ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
INDONESIAS COAL SECTOR EYES 2012 BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe, Indonesian English language News paper reported that, Coal production is set to surge next year as coal miners bolster their busi ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
DRY BULK RALLY MAINTAINS MOMENTUM AT START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum at the start of the week, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 2.07% ...
Monday, 12 September 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ALLOCATED MORE COAL FOR 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian government has increased the domestic market obligation allocation to 82.07 million tons of coal for 2012, which is 4 perc ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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