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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 10 September 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI crossing 1,800 points and closing at 1,838 points up by 5.63 ...
Friday, 09 September 11
SUPRA BARA SECURES $20 MILLION LOAN - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal miner PT Supra Bara Energi says it has secured a US$20 million loan facility from BNP Paribas to buy heavy equi ...
Friday, 09 September 11
CAPESIZE CAN SECURE USD 17-18K SHORT PERIOD - FEARNBULK
Handy
The US Gulf has remained relatively steady, slightly more activity in the South Atlantic with owners aiming for low to mid USD 20k´s f ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
UKRAINES COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 8% - IFANDP
Industrial fuels & power reported that, Ukraine will increase its coal output by about 8% this year compared to last year, said the country&rsqu ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Inde ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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