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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohm ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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