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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
Sunday, 28 August 11
FREIGHT MARKET COULD BE FIRM NEXT MONTH - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend first half of the week . However, towards the end of the week lost momentum and the BDI ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
JAPANESE BULK CARRIER SETS RECORD ON NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - BARENTS OBSERVER
The Northern Sea Route will see its third record in less than a month when the largest ever bulk carrier to take the route leaves Murmansk next week ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
RBCT-INDIA ROUNDS FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12K - FEARNBULK
Handy
Stable but very positional markets across all segments in the Atlantic: the gap between owners and charterers rate ideas is building up as o ...
Friday, 26 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG ACQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL 40% SHARES IN BARA PRIMA AGUNG
COALspot.com - PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk, has signed an acquisition agreement to acquire 40% of PT Bara Prima A ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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