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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 03 September 11
FEW SHIPS REPORTED FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI up by about 13 pct closing at 1,740 points and cape index up ...
Saturday, 03 September 11
TNPL TO BUY 240K MT OF NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL), is seeking to procure 240,000 MT +/- 5 percent of non-coking imported coal with ...
Friday, 02 September 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND LIFTS DRY BULK MARKET ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what proves to be the best week of the year for Capesize owners, strong demand has helped propel the dry bulk market to new highs yesterday. The ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
EWP TO BUY 195KT OF VIETNAM COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued an International open bidding for 490kt of sub bituminous coal, according to a bid invitation ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES GREAT LEAP FORWARD - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU
In what turned out to be a rather hopeful ending of the month, the last day of August saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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