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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 26 August 11
INTRACO EYES US$200 MIO COAL TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk, that was founded by Halex Halim, is scouting a coal acquisition with the valuation above US$200 mi ...
Thursday, 25 August 11
OPG EXPECTS COAL PRICES TO REMAIN FIRM IN THE SHORT TERM
COALspot.com - Revenue of OPG, the developer and operator of Group Captive power plants in India up 188% to £33.15m and Income from continuing ...
Thursday, 25 August 11
PAITON POWER LOOKING FOR 3.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - PT Pembangkit Jawa Bali (PJB) is looking for 3.96 million tons coal with calorific value 4,800 kcal/kg on as received basis. Accordin ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ICMA CALLS GOVERNMENT TO REVIEW EXPORT BAN REGULATION
COALspot.com - Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) Bob Kamandanu asks the government to review the regulation that being draft ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ADARO ENERGY ACQUIRES 75% STAKE OF PT MUSTIKA INDAH PERMAI FOR US$ 222.5 MILLION
COALspot.com - PT Alam Tri Abadi, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy Tbk, signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75% stake of PT M ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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