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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 22 August 11
NTPC TO IMPORT 16 MILLION TON OF COAL TO BRIDGE THE GAP
COALspot.com - NTPC to import 16 million tons of imported coal, which is equivalent to 23-24 million tons of Indian coal to bridge the gap.
" ...
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
SUPRAMAX AVAILABILITY WAS TIGHT DUE TO UPCOMING RAMADAN HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com - The financial markets have been in turmoil with all major stock exchanges down and uncertainty prevails. However the shipping market ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA ACQUIRES DUTA NURCAHYA
Coal miner PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) via PT Pamapersada Nusantara), has agreed to acquire 6 ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIAS CICTL HAS ACHIEVED ONE MILLION TONS OF DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Chettinad International Coal Terminal (CICTL) in Ennore port, a state of the art mechanized coal terminal, which was inaugurated on 28t ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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