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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 19 August 11
AUSTRALIAS' ATH TO ACQUIRE 60% OF APUAH COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Australian listed company, Atech Holdings Limited (ATH) has entered into a conditional binding term sheet to acquire 60 percent stake ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about 28.27 ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRED 42.86% OF YTL JAWA POWER
COALspot.com - Marubeni Corporation (Marubeni) has completed the acquisition of 42.86 percent of the shares of YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV from YTL P ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
CME LAUNCHES ARGUS COKING COAL SWAP FUTURES
COALspot.com - Argus media reported that, leading exchange CME Group will list an Australian coking coal swap futures contract for trading on the Ny ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
TAVESCO KILLARA ENERGY TO ACQUIRE COAL CONCESSIONS IN EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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