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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 19 August 11
AUSTRALIAS' ATH TO ACQUIRE 60% OF APUAH COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Australian listed company, Atech Holdings Limited (ATH) has entered into a conditional binding term sheet to acquire 60 percent stake ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about 28.27 ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRED 42.86% OF YTL JAWA POWER
COALspot.com - Marubeni Corporation (Marubeni) has completed the acquisition of 42.86 percent of the shares of YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV from YTL P ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
CME LAUNCHES ARGUS COKING COAL SWAP FUTURES
COALspot.com - Argus media reported that, leading exchange CME Group will list an Australian coking coal swap futures contract for trading on the Ny ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
TAVESCO KILLARA ENERGY TO ACQUIRE COAL CONCESSIONS IN EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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