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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 14 August 11
SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES SHARPLY UP - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI ended positive with gains in Cape and Panamax index. The BDI was up by 1.50 pct and the cape and panamax index was up by almo ...
Saturday, 13 August 11
GMR HAS ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH GEMS TO ACQUIRE 30% STAKE
COALspot.com - GMR Infrastructure Investments (Singapore) Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 12 August 11
COAL MINERS WILL ALLOW TO CONSTRUCT MINE MOUTH POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - The government is set to draft a regulation to enable construction of steam-fired power plants (PLTU) by coal mining companies for th ...
Friday, 12 August 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND HELPS LIFTING OF DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has recovered a small fraction of its lost ground this week, with higher returns as a result of increased capesize demand. This ...
Thursday, 11 August 11
INDO TAMBANGRAYA 1H NET PROFIT SOARS 53.09%
Coal miner PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) today reported a 53.09% jump in net profit for the first 6 months of this year on the back of higher ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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