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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 10 August 11
KILLARA RESOURCES TO ACQUIRE SIX COAL CONCESSIONS OF TASON HOLDINGS
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
Wednesday, 10 August 11
RESOURCE NATIONALISM IS MAIN BUSINESS RISK FOR MINING SECTORS, E&Y SURVEY
Resource nationalism is top of the business risk list for mining and metals companies around the world, while supply capacity constraint issues cont ...
Wednesday, 10 August 11
INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION OPPOSES LOW-GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN
COALspot.com - The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) frowns on and challenges the government plan to ban the low-grade coal export inf ...
Wednesday, 10 August 11
ABM INVESTAMA TO OFFLOAD 20% IPO
Integrated coal mining PT ABM Investama, affiliated company of Tiara Marga Trakindo Group, aims to dispose 20% stake during an initial public offeri ...
Tuesday, 09 August 11
INDONESIAS COAL PRODUCTION GREW BY 19.4% LAST YEAR - BP
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s coal production grew by 19.4% last year to 305.879 million tonnes from 256.181 million tonnes in 2009, the fastest ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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